For decades, the United States has been Canada’s closest and most important trading partner. More than 70 per cent of Manitoba’s trade merchandise is exported to the U.S., while more than 73 per cent of our imports come from there. Additionally, 62 per cent of our foreign direct investment originates from our southern neighbour. However, in just a few weeks, this crucial relationship has been drastically altered.
The potential imposition of unfortunate and unnecessary tariffs by the U.S. government and the response by the Canadian government, has dramatically shifted the way companies on both sides of the 49th parallel are doing business. Regardless of what tariffs are eventually implemented, the business climate between both countries is full of uncertainty.
The trade war will impact Winnipeg jobs—that impact will depend on the scope of the tariffs and the resulting extent of GDP decline. EDW’s estimates range from nearly 1,200 job losses in a best-case scenario, where tariffs are short-lived, to 10,000 job losses in a worst-case scenario, if the tariffs remain in place for a year.
In Winnipeg, it will be essential to rally together to overcome these challenges in the short term—as businesses and as consumers. Supporting local companies, helping Winnipeg-based businesses source new suppliers and enter new markets, and strengthening interprovincial trade opportunities are increasingly important priorities.
As the largest economic development agency in the province, Economic Development Winnipeg (EDW) is committed to helping local businesses navigate and overcome any new economic reality, including tariff-related challenges for as long as uncertainty persists.
Here are four potential areas where we, as a community, can take action to control what we can control, mitigate the risk and capitalize on the opportunities for Winnipeg and Manitoba during this time of uncertainty.
Invest in growth-enabling infrastructure
Manitoba is already well-positioned as the hub of North American trade from Churchill to Mexico, and from the Atlantic to Pacific oceans. This unique advantage can be leveraged towards greater economic outcomes, by linking international supply chains through land, sea and air.
Continuing to invest in existing solutions such as the Port of Churchill, Winnipeg Airports Authority, CentrePort and other ports of entry will help facilitate trade access from a broader geographic region. Greater multi-modal connectivity and enabling infrastructure, and other wraparound supports for these transportation corridors can improve Manitoba’s reputation as one of the continent’s transportation and logistics superhubs.
Improving these trade and investment-enabling infrastructure assets requires a whole-team approach, from zoning and permits to resource access, such as energy supply and raw materials. This supporting infrastructure can be sourced and allocated according to the greatest potential economic impact, while ensuring social and environmental factors are considerations
Alignment on shared economic goals
To embrace this new economic reality, a shared approach needs to be co-developed between a variety of partners—government, business and the broader community. Aligning priorities more closely between affected stakeholders (including other provinces) will allow us to leverage our collective strengths and better meet the needs of key trade and investment markets.
It is imperative that we continue engaging with Indigenous communities on future projects and initiatives—not only as an act of economic reconciliation, but because partnership on strategic infrastructure development across the province makes good economic sense and reflects the unique strengths of our province and its people.
Increase competitiveness through regulatory reform
Several regulatory hurdles exist in Manitoba, each of which have a negative impact on our overall business environment. Every regulation requires time and money to comply with—resources that could otherwise be used for production or business development. As a starting point, levelling the regulatory playing field will put Manitoba more in line with other provinces when it comes to the ease of doing business here, further facilitating the attraction of businesses, jobs and capital.
Harmonizing business-related regulations, where possible, with other provinces would allow Manitoba to attract more capital projects—creating jobs, expanding domestic capacity and reinforcing Winnipeg’s reputation as an easy and affordable place to do business. To be complacent in areas that we control means we run the risk of falling further behind and losing businesses to other cities.
Invest in our people and productivity
Manitoba’s productivity level is below the national average, ranking 10th among Canada’s 13 provinces and territories. Compared to our neighbours, Manitoba’s productivity is 10% lower than Ontario’s and 25% lower than Saskatchewan’s. This serves as a wake-up call—action is needed to enhance our province’s competitiveness.
Investing in skills development and other productivity-enhancing technologies can provide greater access to best-in-class knowledge, while creating more mentorship opportunities for students and new workers will help facilitate knowledge transfer for the next generation of our workforce.
Creating economic and regulatory incentives to conduct R&D, business growth, and hiring within Manitoba can be a powerful tool to generate long-term economic impact while helping retain our talent here at home. Tax incentives can help offset the risks and costs of new business development, while helping facilitate the inflow of venture capital can provide the financing necessary for local businesses to succeed here – without needing to move their operations to a more investor-friendly jurisdiction.
Today, a great deal of emphasis is being placed on buying local – this can be deployed as a long-term policy as well. Our public and private sectors can take steps to retain local economic value through procuring and tendering locally, whenever such local capacity exists - including a focus on Indigenous and other equity-seeking businesses. This strategy will help showcase local companies and provide them with the capacity to gain experience, and create jobs, while working on major projects that benefit our local economy.
We’re all in this together
It is important to recognize the uncertain path we are collectively facing in the days, months and years ahead, and the need for an all-hands approach to support our business community. EDW’s immediate priority is to help support businesses affected by potential U.S. tariffs by connecting them with the resources they need and sharing insights with government partners, while identifying opportunities to support and protect our local businesses. We’re all in this together.
However, this crisis reinforces the urgency of rethinking Winnipeg’s economic future and taking bold steps to strengthen our long-term resilience. Together, we can choose to meet the moment to invest strategically and improve our economic competitiveness, allowing us to come out of this uncertainty stronger than ever. Or we can choose to maintain the status quo and fall further behind. Now is the time to take action.
